PWR Update - It's a long way to the top...

For those of us living out in the diaspora, there's nothing quite like watching UW rack up a win over Minnesota in a bar full of alumni from both schools. I had the pleasure of watching Friday's game at our local alumni bar in DC, Hamilton's. We had invited the Minnesota alums to watch the game with us, but only a few decided to join us - and those that did come probably wished the outcome had been different. The Gophers were outscored and outdrinked, where they couldn't handle the UW crew's ability to put back $1 cans of PBR. Aside from being there in person at the game, I can't think of a finer way to watch a Badger victory.

(as an aside - as a resident of the District of Columbia, I'm planning on putting together a bit of a visitor's guide to the city for anyone making the trip - and it will be even more extensive should UW make the trip as well. Let me know in the comments if there's anything specific you'd like to know about DC)

For those who will be travelling out to DC for the Frozen Four, Hamilton's will be in full force - even more so if the team can make the trip. Of course, for them to make the trip, they'll need to first make the tournament.

After the completion of Saturday's games, UW sat at #14 in the PWR, last team in off of the bubble. However, Sunday afternoon featured a contest between Notre Dame and Ohio State, with Ohio State emerging with a very valuable 4-1 win - putting them ahead of UW and sliding the Badgers on the wrong side of the bubble.

The current PWR looks like this:

Rk	Team	PWR	Rk	W-L-T	Win %	Rk	RPI
1	Boston University	24	1	21-5-1	.7963	1	.5992*
2	Vermont	22	9	16-6-4	.6923	4	.5747
3t	Notre Dame	21	2	21-5-3	.7759	3	.5800
3t	Michigan	21	8	21-9-0	.7000	5	.5696
5	Northeastern	20	4	19-6-2	.7407	2	.5809
6t	Cornell	18	5t	15-4-4	.7391	6	.5632*
6t	Denver	18	12	17-9-3	.6379	7	.5548
8t	Princeton	17	5t	17-6-0	.7391	8	.5545*
8t	Miami	17	11	16-8-4	.6429	9	.5533
10	Yale	16	3	17-5-1	.7609	10	.5497*
11	Minnesota-Duluth	14	14	15-9-6	.6000	11	.5425
12t	Ohio State	12	10	18-9-3	.6500	12	.5424*
12t	New Hampshire	12	19t	13-9-4	.5769	13	.5424
14	Minnesota	11	22	12-9-5	.5577	14	.5397
15	Wisconsin	10	16t	16-11-3	.5833	15	.5387
16t	Boston College	9	21	12-9-4	.5600	16	.5386
16t	North Dakota	9	16t	16-11-3	.5833	17	.5374
18	Air Force	7	7	19-7-2	.7143	19	.5232
19	Colorado College	6	16t	14-9-7	.5833	18	.5261
20t	St. Lawrence	5	23t	14-11-3	.5536	20	.5225
20t	St. Cloud State	5	28	15-13-2	.5333	21	.5210
22	Alaska	3	25t	12-10-6	.5357	22	.5178
23	Dartmouth	2	15	12-8-3	.5870	23	.5154
24	Minnesota State	1	31t	13-13-3	.5000	24	.5137
25	Mass.-Lowell	0	31t	13-13-0	.5000	25	.5126

The single biggest takeaway from this is the RPI. As I noted previously, the PWR rank is remarkably similar to the RPI rank. UW sits at #15 in both.

So, what's that mean?

The good news: Minnesota is ahead of UW by a miniscule .0010 points. The other teams immediately in front of UW are also well within striking distance.

The bad news: Wisconsin's margin for the rest of the season is razor-thin.

Now wait just a minute here...

Of course, a cursory glance at the WCHA standings shows UW sitting tied for first place:

		WCHA						Overall
	Team	GP	W-L-T	Pts.	GF-GA			GP	W-L-T	GF-GA
1	Denver	22	13-7-2	28	79-58			29	17-9-3	103-73
	Wisconsin	22	13-7-2	28	78-59			30	16-11-3	102-80
3	North Dakota	20	11-6-3	25	69-55			30	16-11-3	104-82
4	Colorado College	22	10-8-4	24	59-64			30	14-9-7	81-78
5	Minnesota-Duluth	22	9-8-5	23	61-53			30	15-9-6	89-70
6	St. Cloud State	22	10-11-1	21	68-64			30	15-13-2	105-83
	Minnesota	20	9-8-3	21	61-59			26	12-9-5	85-77
8	Minnesota State	22	9-11-2	20	68-71			29	13-13-3	92-90
9	Alaska-Anchorage	22	7-11-4	18	53-73			26	10-12-4	70-84
10	Michigan Tech	22	1-15-6	8	34-74			30	5-19-6	45-93

How can a team sitting tied for first with six games to play (4 of which are against either their co-leaders or their closest competitors) be squarely on the bubble?

It's hard to put the onus on any one game, but clearly the WCHA's relatively poor performance in the non-conference season is hurting everyone in this year's version of the PWR. Even more so, the specific games UW has lost have been particularly painful. Despite the ignomy of the 0-6-1 start, the losses to BC and UNH haven't hurt UW all that much - certainly not more than the rest of the losses. BC and UNH are largely in the same overall bubblicious position as the Badgers, and the rest of the WCHA's poor non-conference record means that losses to the Eagles and Wildcats aren't a drag on either UW's RPI (thanks to their overall success) or the COp criteria (thanks to the WCHA's poor overall record).

The NMU series is one that likely sticks out in the minds of most fans - as it should. That series also hasn't burned UW too badly in the COp criteria, but it's a huge drag on UW's RPI. Losing to bad teams hurts, plain and simple.

UW's also failed to close out a series or two that would have locked up some comparisons for good. The Saturday night loss to UMD is a perfect example. UMD is winning the individual comparison against UW because of it:

Minnesota-Duluth			vs	Wisconsin
	.5425	1	RPI	0	.5387
8-6-2	.5625	1	TUC	0	.4333	6-8-1
7-6-5	.5278	0	COp	1	.5588	9-7-1
1-2-1		1	H2H	2		2-1-1
		3	TOT	3

An extra head to head win would have both boosted UW's RPI, but also ensured that UW wins the comparison even if their RPI slipped below UMD's.

What that means:

As I said before, the margin of error is razor thin. UW needs to keep winning games, especially those coming up against DU and UND. Both have relatively strong RPIs. Losses to them won't hurt a lot, but the margin of error is so slim that may not matter. Wins would help tremendously.

The other thing to note is that the bottom of the standings are pretty tight - one game between two teams (Sunday's game between OSU and ND) shows how volatile things still are.