Sunday, March 7, 2010

NCAA Bracketology 3/7/2010

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After this past weekends disappointing series, I had to put out a bracketology immediately to calm the masses.

Yes you are reading that correctly, I currently have Wisconsin projected in St. Paul. I think Jayson Moy from USCHO will agree with me at least on that part when he puts out his projection during the week. If you keep Denver in St. Paul, the attendance is going to be atrocious. I'll explain it in further detail later in this post.

Other things of note this week, Vermont drops out and Northern Michigan is in for the first time this season. Boston College and North Dakota are two teams that I would not want to play right now. Both teams continue to sky rocket up the PWR on a weekly basis. St. Cloud State took a big time fall this week after a loss and a tie during a home/home with Minnesota State. They went from being a #1 seed to #7 overall, tough weekend.

Step 1: Pick the 16 Tournament teams

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. Bemidji State
7. St. Cloud State
8. Alaska
9. Yale
10. New Hampshire
11. Cornell
12. Michigan State
13. Ferris State
14. Northern Michigan
15. Minnesota-Duluth
16. Atlantic Hockey Winner

Bubble Teams (UMass, Nebraska-Omaha, Vermont, UMass-Lowell, Maine)

Step 2: Assign the Seeds

No. 1 Seeds: Denver, Miami, Wisconsin, Boston College
No. 2 Seeds: North Dakota, Bemidji State, St. Cloud, Alaska
No. 3 Seeds: Yale, New Hampshire, Cornell, Michigan State
No. 4 Seeds: Ferris State, Northern Michigan, Minnesota-Duluth, Atlantic Hockey Winner

Step 3: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Denver is placed in the West regional in St. Paul
No. 2 Miami is placed in the Mid-West regional in Fort Wayne
No. 3 Wisconsin is placed in the East regional in Albany
No. 4 Boston College is placed in Northeast regional in Worcester

Step 4: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible

Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 Seeds:

No. 8 Alaska is placed in No. 1 Denver's Regional, the West Regional.
No. 7 St. Cloud State is placed in No. 2 Miami's Regional, the Mid-West Regional.
No. 6 Bemidji State is placed in No. 3 Wisconsin's Regional, the East Regional.
No. 5 North Dakota is placed in No. 4 Boston College's Regional, the Northeast Regional.

Number 3 Seeds:

Our bracketing system has one Regional containing seeds 1, 8, 9, and 16, another with 2, 7, 10, 15, another with 3, 6, 11, 14 and another with 4, 5, 12 and 13.No. 9 Yale is placed in No. 8 Alaska's Regional, the West Regional.
No. 10 New Hampshire is placed in No. 7 St. Cloud's Regional, the Mid-West Regional.
No. 11 Cornell is placed in No. 6 Bemidji's Regional, the East Regional.
No. 12 Michigan State is placed in No. 5 North Dakota's Regional, the Northeast Regional.

Number 4 seeds:

One more time, taking No. 16 v. No. 1, No. 15 v. No. 2, etc.

No. 16 Atlantic Hockey Winner is sent to No. 1 Denver's Regional, the West Regional.
No. 15 Minnesota Duluth is sent to No. 2 Miami's Regional, the Mid-West Regional.
No. 14 Northern Michigan is sent to No. 3 Wisconsin's Regional, the East Regional.
No. 13 Ferris State is sent to No. 4 Boston College's Regional, the Northeast Regional.

Our Bracket as we have it set up:

West Regional (St. Paul, MN):

1 Denver vs 16 Atlantic Hockey Champ
8 Alaska vs 9 Yale

Midwest Regional
(Fort Wayne, IN):

2 Miami vs 15 Minnesota-Duluth
7 St. Cloud vs 10 New Hampshire

East Regional (Albany, NY):

3 Wisconsin vs 14 Northern Michigan
6 Bemidji State vs 11 Cornell

Northeast Regional (Worcester, MA):

4 Boston College vs 13 Ferris State
5 North Dakota vs 12 Michigan State

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. We have none, so there are no issues there. Integrity also looks good.

How about attendance? St. Paul looks like an absolute travesty. As we've done before, we're going to switch Denver's bracket with Wisconsin's bracket. As it stands right now, both teams need to fly, by putting Wisconsin's bracket in St. Paul, only Denver has to fly.

Are there any other subtle changes that can make this tournament better? I'm taking a bit of a risk here but I'm going to switch Michigan State and New Hampshire. It's a #10 and a #12 so they can be moved within the band to help attendance. The move makes sense. Putting Michigan State in Fort Wayne and New Hampshire in Worchester makes travel and attendance for both regionals much easier.

There's really nothing else we can do without creating intra-conference match ups. Would have loved to move Ferris State to Fort Wayne or Duluth to St. Paul but they both create first round intra-conference match ups.

Our Final Bracket for the night:

East Regional (Albany, NY):

1 Denver vs 16 Atlantic Hockey Champ (RIT)
8 Alaska vs 9 Yale

Midwest Regional
(Fort Wayne, IN):

2 Miami vs 15 Minnesota-Duluth
7 St. Cloud vs 12 Michigan State

West Regional (St. Paul, MN):

3 Wisconsin vs 14 Northern Michigan
6 Bemidji State vs 11 Cornell

Northeast Regional (Worcester, MA):

4 Boston College vs 13 Ferris State
5 North Dakota vs 10 New Hampshire

I like that bracket better. We now have Miami and Michigan State in Fort Wayne, Wisconsin and Bemidji State in St. Paul, Boston College and New Hampshire in Worcester, and Yale and RIT in Albany.

That's my bracket for the week. We'll see what Jayson Moy from USCHO comes up with during the week.