Monday, November 29, 2010

Monday Morning Bracketology Week 4: 11/29/10

It's time once again for our weekly installment of Bracketology. This week finds the Wisconsin Badgers sitting at home once again come tournament time for the third week in a row. However, for the first time in a couple weeks we're on the upswing. We stopped the bleeding this weekend with a tie and a win in the College Hockey Showcase and we moved up from #24 to #18 in the all important PWR.

Just like last week, five WCHA teams are projected to make the NCAA tournament with Wisconsin right on the bubble.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. Nebraska-Omaha
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. Boston University
5. Notre Dame
6. New Hampshire
7. North Dakota
8. Michigan
9. Denver
10. Minnesota
11. Union
12. Miami
13. Boston College
14. Dartmouth
15. RPI
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (Robert Morris)

Bubble Teams (in order): Maine, Alaska, Wisconsin, Merrimack, Princeton

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, UNO, Minnesota-Duluth, Boston University
No. 2 seeds: Notre Dame, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Michigan
No. 3 seeds: Denver, Minnesota, Union, Miami
No. 4 seeds: Boston College, Dartmouth, RPI, Robert Morris

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #2 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals
Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (Host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 4 Boston University is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Michigan is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional
No. 7 North Dakota is placed in No. 2 Nebraska-Omaha's Regional, the West Regional
No. 6 UNH (host) is placed in No. 4 Boston University's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 5 Notre Dame is placed in No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Denver is placed No. 8 Michigan's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Minnesota is placed in No. 7 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 11 Union is placed in No. 6 New Hampshire's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 12 Miami is placed in No. 5 Notre Dame's Regional, the Mid-West Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Boston University's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Dartmouth is placed in No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 15 RPI is placed in No. 2 Nebraska-Omahas Regional, the West Regional
No. 16 Robert Morris is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Michigan vs 9 Denver

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
2 Nebraska-Omaha vs 15 RPI
7 North Dakota vs 10 Minnesota

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Boston University vs 13 Boston College
6 New Hampshire vs 11 Union

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
3 Minnesota-Duluth vs 14 Dartmouth
5 Notre Dame vs 12 Miami

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. The past two weeks were easy, we had no concerns. This week there are three intra-conference match ups. Minnesota vs North Dakota, Boston University vs Boston College, and Notre Dame vs Miami.

We can only move teams within their own band. Therefore, the easy switch is between Miami and Minnesota. So Minnesota will face Notre Dame in the Mid-West and Miami will face North Dakota in the West. Again keeping teams in their own band, for bracket integrity we flip #14 Dartmouth with #13 Boston College. Moving BC out of the Northeast sucks but we can't punish the #1 overall seed Yale by sticking #13 BC against them so this is our only option.

Our NEW Bracket:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Michigan vs 9 Denver

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
2 Nebraska-Omaha vs 15 RPI
7 North Dakota vs
12 Miami

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Boston University vs
14 Dartmouth
6 New Hampshire vs 11 Union

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
3 Minnesota-Duluth vs 13 Boston College
5 Notre Dame vs 10 Minnesota


Bracket integrity looks strong.

Attendance this week is probably the strongest it's been in the four weeks of tracking bracketology. Green Bay attendance should be excellent with Duluth, Notre Dame, and Minneosta, same with BU and New Hampshire in Manchester. Omaha, North Dakota, and Miami in St. Louis also looks good. Bridgeport is the only concern but they do have Yale as a host school. There isn't anything we can change to make it better.

So that's what we'll go with for this week, I'm happy with it.

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR

chuckschwartz@live.com
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