Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Tuesday Afternoon Bracketology Week 14: 2/15/11

What a difference a week makes. Wisconsin went from a tie for 7th place in the Pairwise to 15th in the Pairwise with their pair of losses on the road at Nebraska-Omaha. Wisconsin's 15th overall ranking has them as the last at-large team to get into the tournament. It's amazing that in the matter of two games you can go from feeling like a lock to be in the tournament to hanging on by a thread.

The WCHA still holds 5 at large bids by my count with Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Denver, Wisconsin, and UNO. Colorado College (18), Minnesota (t19), Minnesota State (23), St. Cloud (t26) and Alaska-Anchorage (t28) are all on the outside looking in.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. Boston College
3. North Dakota
4. Denver
5. Merrimack
6. Minnesota-Duluth
7. Union
8. Nebraska-Omaha
9. New Hampshire
10. Michigan
11. Miami
12. Notre Dame
13. Dartmouth
14. RPI
15. Wisconsin
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (RIT)

Bubble Teams (in order): Western Michigan, Boston University, Colorado College, Maine, Minnesota

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, Boston College, North Dakota, Denver
No. 2 seeds: Merrimack, Minnesota-Duluth, Union, Nebraska-Omaha
No. 3 seeds: New Hampshire, Michigan, Miami, Notre Dame
No. 4 seeds: Dartmouth, RPI, Wisconsin, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #3 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 4 Denver is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Region
No. 7 Union is placed in No. 2 Boston College's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 6 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 5 Merrimack is placed in No. 4 Denver's Regional, the West Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 New Hampshire (host) is placed No. 7 Union's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 10 Michigan is placed in No. 8 UNO's Regional, the East Regional
No. 11 Miami is placed in No. 6 UMD's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 12 Notre Dame is placed in No. 5 Merrimack's Regional, the West Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Dartmouth is placed in No. 4 Denver's Regional, the West Regional
No. 14 RPI is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 15 Wisconsin is placed in No. 2 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 16 RIT is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Nebraska-Omaha vs 10 Michigan

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
3 North Dakota vs 14 RPI
6 Minnesota-Duluth vs 11 Miami

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
2 Boston College vs 15 Wisconsin
7 Union vs 9 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
4 Denver vs 13 Dartmouth
5 Merrimack vs 12 Notre Dame

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. This week we have none so that's a positive. Can we do anything to improve attendance? Wisconsin can't be moved to Green Bay because it will cause an intra-conference match up. Really I don't see any other moves we can make to make things better so that's what I'll go with for this week.


Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.
Week 8: Back in the game, #12 overall seed in Northeast Regional in Manchester
Week 9: Moving on up, to the east side. #9 overall seed in the East Regional.
Week 10a: All the way up to the #8 overall seed vs Maine in the East Regional.
Week 10b: With the PWR tweak we drop a spot. Now playing BC in Green Bay.
Week 11: Keep winning, keep moving up. #7 overall seed vs Western Mich in Green Bay.
Week 12: #7 overall seed once again. This week vs Merrimack in Green Bay.
Week 13: #8 overall seed, taking on #9 Union in the Mid-West Regional in GB.
Week 14: #15 overall seed, in the Northeast Regional vs Boston College.

chuckschwartz(at)live.com
Follow me on Twitter