Monday, February 28, 2011

Monday Morning Bracketology: Week 16 2/28/11

Wisconsin's tournament chances took a serious hit with their oh-fer in St. Cloud. They dropped from #14 in the Pairwise to #21. The Badgers are going to need to go on a serious run here to get an at large bid. Wisconsin would like to get to at least 12 or 13 in the PWR to feel safe.

The WCHA lost a bid this week with Wisconsin dropping out but picked up a bid when Colorado College moved in to the tournament. The WCHA is sitting with 5 at large bids right now with Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Denver, and UNO and Colorado College in as of right now. Minnesota (19), St Cloud (20) and Wisconsin (21) still have a shot at at large bids if they can go on a run.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. North Dakota
3. Boston College
4. Michigan
5. Denver
6. Union
7. Merrimack
8. Nebraska-Omaha
9. Notre Dame
10. Miami
11. Minnesota-Duluth
12. New Hampshire
13. RPI
14. Colorado College
15. Boston University
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (RIT)

Bubble Teams (in order): Maine, Dartmouth, Western Michigan, Minnesota, St. Cloud State

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, North Dakota, Boston College, Michigan
No. 2 seeds: Denver, Union, Merrimack, Nebraska-Omaha
No. 3 seeds: Notre Dame, Miami, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire
No. 4 seeds: RPI, Colorado College, Boston University, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #3 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 3 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester
No. 4 Michigan is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 UNO is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Region
No. 7 Merrimack is placed in No. 2 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 6 Union is placed in No. 3 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Merrimack's Regional, the Mid-West Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Notre Dame is placed No. 8 UNO's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Miami is placed in No. 7 Merrimack's Regional, the West Regional
No. 11 UMD is placed in No. 5 Denver's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 12 UNH (host) is placed in No. 6 Union's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 RPI is placed in No. 4 Michigan's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 14 Colorado College is placed in No. 3 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 15 Boston University is placed in No. 2 UND's Regional, the West Regional
No. 16 RIT is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Nebraska-Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
4 Michigan vs 13 RPI
5 Denver vs 11 Minnesota-Duluth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
3 Boston College vs 14 Colorado College
6 Union vs 12 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
2 North Dakota vs 15 Boston University
7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. This week we have one with Minnesota-Duluth and Denver in the Mid-West Regional. We know we can't make a flip with the East regional because that would create another intra-conference match up with Nebraska-Omaha. We also can't flip UMD with UNH because UNH is a host in Manchester. Easiest move will be to flip Union and Denver and keep UMD in Green Bay.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Nebraska-Omaha vs 9 Notre Dame

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
4 Michigan vs 13 RPI
6 Union vs 11 Minnesota-Duluth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
3 Boston College vs 14 Colorado College
5 Denver vs 12 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
2 North Dakota vs 15 Boston University
7 Merrimack vs 10 Miami

Can we do anything to improve attendance? One that stands out to me is moving UNO to St. Louis and Merrimack back East. It's an easy switch.

Another move we could make would be to get RPI to Manchester by flipping them with Colorado College who would go to Green Bay.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
7 Merrimack vs 9 Notre Dame

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
4 Michigan vs 14 Colorado College
6 Union vs 11 Minnesota-Duluth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
3 Boston College vs 13 RPI
5 Denver vs 12 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
2 North Dakota vs 15 Boston University
8 Nebraska-Omaha vs 10 Miami

Bracket integrity looks strong. Attendance looks strong. UNO and UND in St. Louis, BC, RPI and UNH in Manchester, Michigan and UMD in Green Bay, and Yale, RIT and Merrimack in Bridgeport. Not a bad bracket.

That's what I'll go with for the week.

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.
Week 8: Back in the game, #12 overall seed in Northeast Regional in Manchester
Week 9: Moving on up, to the east side. #9 overall seed in the East Regional.
Week 10a: All the way up to the #8 overall seed vs Maine in the East Regional.
Week 10b: With the PWR tweak we drop a spot. Now playing BC in Green Bay.
Week 11: Keep winning, keep moving up. #7 overall seed vs Western Mich in Green Bay.
Week 12: #7 overall seed once again. This week vs Merrimack in Green Bay.
Week 13: #8 overall seed, taking on #9 Union in the Mid-West Regional in GB.
Week 14: #15 overall seed, in the Northeast Regional vs Boston College.
Week 15: Moved up a spot after sliding the past 3 weeks. #14 overall seed in GB.
Week 16: Dropped out of the tournament completely. #21 in the PWR.

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