Sunday, February 6, 2011

Super Sunday Bracketology Week 13: 2/6/2011

I've gotten basically no sleep due to being so excited for tonight's Super Bowl so I figured I'd pump out a bracketology post while everyone else is sleeping. Wisconsin had a bye week and dropped spot in the PWR (well, they are actually tied for 7th but lose the tie breaker).

The WCHA picked up a bid this week with the resurgence of Nebraska-Omaha. The Mavericks swept St. Cloud State over the weekend and grabbed the last at large bid in this weeks projections. The WCHA now holds 5 at large bids by my count with Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Denver, Wisconsin, and UNO. Colorado College (18), Minnesota (22), Minnesota State (t23), and Alaska-Anchorage (25) are all on the outside looking in.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. North Dakota
4. Boston College
5. New Hampshire
6. Denver
7. RPI
8. Wisconsin
9. Union
10. Merrimack
11. Notre Dame
12. Michigan
13. Western Michigan
14. Boston University
15. Nebraska-Omaha
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (RIT)

Bubble Teams (in order): Dartmouth, Miami, Colorado College, Princeton, Alaska

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Boston College
No. 2 seeds: New Hampshire, Denver, RPI, Wisconsin
No. 3 seeds: Union, Merrimack, Notre Dame, Michigan
No. 4 seeds: Western Michigan, Boston University, Nebraska-Omaha, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #2 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 4 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Wisconsin is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Region
No. 7 RPI is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 5 New Hampshire is placed in No. 4 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Union is placed No. 8 Wisconsin's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Merrimack is placed in No. 7 RPI's Regional, the Mid-West
No. 11 Notre Dame is placed in No. 6 Denver's Regional, the West Regional
No. 12 Michigan is placed in No. 5 New Hampshire's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Western Michigan is placed in No. 4 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 BU is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in No. 2 UMD's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 16 RIT is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Wisconsin vs 9 Union

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 15 Nebraska-Omaha
7 RPI vs 10 Merrimack

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Boston College vs 13 Western Michigan
5 New Hampshire vs 12 Michigan

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Boston University
6 Denver vs 11 Notre Dame

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. This week we one with Minnesota-Duluth facing Nebraska-Omaha. We have two options for moving Nebraska-Omaha. We can't send them to the West because that would create another intra-conference match up with North Dakota. We could ship them to the East but the committee usually tries to protect the #1 overall seed (Yale) by keeping them with the #16 (RIT) unless it's unavoidable. Therefore, I will flip UNO with Western Michigan.

Our NEW bracket:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Wisconsin vs 9 Union

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 13 Western Michigan
7 RPI vs 10 Merrimack

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Boston College vs 15 Nebraska-Omaha
5 New Hampshire vs 12 Michigan

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Boston University
6 Denver vs 11 Notre Dame

What can we do to improve attendance at the regionals? Like we've talked about in the past here, if the committee can move Wisconsin to Green Bay without creating an intra-conference match up or totally ruining bracket integrity, they will. So we'll move the entire match up with Wisconsin vs Union to Green Bay to avoid the intra-conference game between RPI and Union. Obviously the RPI/Merrimack game is now in the East which helps out attendance in Bridgeport as well.

Our NEWEST bracket:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
7 RPI vs 10 Merrimack

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 13 Western Michigan
8 Wisconsin vs 9 Union

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Boston College vs 15 Nebraska-Omaha
5 New Hampshire vs 12 Michigan

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Boston University
6 Denver vs 11 Notre Dame

I don't know if it gets any better than this. We've got 4 Eastern teams in Bridgeport, UMD and Wisconsin in Green Bay. UNH, Boston College, and Michigan in Manchester, and North Dakota and Denver in St. Louis. If the NCAA could end the season right now I think they would and print this tournament. It looks great from all angles so that's what I'll go with for today.

There are games on Monday with the bean pot so I'll probably do another bracketolgy later in the week with the adjustments.

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.
Week 8: Back in the game, #12 overall seed in Northeast Regional in Manchester
Week 9: Moving on up, to the east side. #9 overall seed in the East Regional.
Week 10a: All the way up to the #8 overall seed vs Maine in the East Regional.
Week 10b: With the PWR tweak we drop a spot. Now playing BC in Green Bay.
Week 11: Keep winning, keep moving up. #7 overall seed vs Western Mich in Green Bay.
Week 12: #7 overall seed once again. This week vs Merrimack in Green Bay.
Week 13: #8 overall seed, taking on #9 Union in the Mid-West Regional in GB.

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