Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Around the WCHA: What is Left

I've been testing Chuck to see how he'd run the blog and he's done a stand up job, nice work Chuck!

Most teams have 8 games left over the next 5 weekends and the standings are TIGHT!

Here are the WCHA standings. Denver leads by a point over Duluth who has a point edge over St Cloud who has a one advantage over the Badgers and CC.

The WCHA "What If" calculator is awesome all year and w/ the standings so close, spots 2 thru 4 can go anyway. Here is what I think will happen:

1) Denver - 40 pts
2) UW - 38 pts
3) Duluth - 36 pts
4) St Cloud - 35 pts
5) North Dakota - 31 pts
6) CC - 30 pts
7) minnesota - 24 pts
8) UAA - 23 pts
9) Mankato - 16 pts
10) Tech - 7 pts

I think North Dakota is going to make a run, or I just think CC is still overrated.

Here are the "contenders" for home ice's remaining schedules:

Denver: umn, Tech, @Mankato, CC (home & home) {can it get any easier?}
Duluth: @Tech, @UND, umn, @AA (6 road games always tough)
St Cloud: AA, UND, @UW, @Mankato
CC: @umn, UND, DU (home & home)
UW: Mankato, SCSU, @Tech, @umn
UND: @SCSU, UMD, @CC, Tech (possibly favorable to make a run)

I didn't include the gophers for two reasons: 1) they play 4 of the top 5 teams to finish, and (2) they suck.

I think the Badgers can go 6-1-1 the rest of the way, other than St Cloud, they are really hitting the bottom of the conference teams the rest of the way. I don't see a way anyone can catch DU w/ that schedule.

Lastly, check out the Playoff Status website. Really like this one. Based on the statistical analysis they use, Denver controls their own destiny and has a 60% chance of winning the MacNaughton. At this point, the Badgers have less than 2% chance of not getting home ice and will likely fall between 2 and 4, which certainly looks like how it will shake out w/ Duluth and St Cloud. Tech has last wrapped up, but we all knew this in October.

It should be a fun finish to the season, a 2nd or 3rd place finish will look good going into the Final Five to avoid the play-in game as that tourney could decide who gets the #1 seed in St Paul.