Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Spring Break Bracketology: Week 17 3/8/11

Apologize for the late bracketology this week, I'm enjoying my spring break.

Despite splitting with Colorado College, Wisconsin dropped two more spots in the PWR this week to #23. The unsettling part to think about is if Wisconsin didn't lose on Friday night they would be sitting at #15 in the PWR right now. The good thing is that Wisconsin has 2 more games against CC this weekend and a sweep puts them right back in contention for an at large bid.

The WCHA didn't gain or drop any bids this week. The WCHA is sitting with 5 at large bids right now with Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Denver, and UNO and Colorado College in as of right now. Minnesota, St Cloud and Wisconsin still have a shot at at large bids but most likely will have to win the Final Five to make it in the tournament.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. Boston College
3. North Dakota
4. Michigan
5. Denver
6. Union
7. Nebraska-Omaha
8. Merrimack
9. Miami
10. Notre Dame
11. Minnesota-Duluth
12. New Hampshire
13. Dartmouth
14. Western Michigan
15. Colorado College
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (RIT)

Bubble Teams (in order): Boston University, RPI, Maine, Minnesota, St. Cloud State

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, Boston College, North Dakota, Michigan
No. 2 seeds: Denver, Union, Nebraska-Omaha, Merrimack
No. 3 seeds: Miami, Notre Dame, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire
No. 4 seeds: Dartmouth, Western Michigan, Colorado College, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #3 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 4 Michigan is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Merrimack is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Region
No. 7 UNO is placed in No. 2 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 6 Union is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Denver is placed in No. 4 Michigan's Regional, the Mid-West Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Miami is placed No. 8 Merrimack's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Notre Dame is placed in No. 6 Union's Regional, the West Regional
No. 11 UMD is placed in No. 5 Denver's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 12 UNH (host) is placed in No. 7 UNO's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Dartmouth is placed in No. 4 Michigan's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 14 Western Mich. is placed in No. 3 UND's Regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Colorado College is placed in No. 2 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 16 RIT is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Merrimack vs 9 Miami

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
4 Michigan vs 13 Dartmouth
5 Denver vs 11 Minnesota-Duluth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
2 Boston College vs 15 Colorado College
7 Nebraska-Omaha vs 12 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Western Michigan
6 Union vs 10 Notre Dame

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. This week we have one with Minnesota-Duluth and Denver in the Mid-West Regional. We know we can't make a flip with the Northeast regional because that would create another intra-conference match up with Nebraska-Omaha and also New Hampshire can't be moved out of Manchester since they are a host school.

We can either flip UMD and Miami or Denver and Union. Denver/Union makes more since because it keeps bracket integrity intact and keeps UMD in Green Bay for attendance.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Merrimack vs 9 Miami

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
4 Michigan vs 13 Dartmouth
6 Union vs 11 Minnesota-Duluth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
2 Boston College vs 15 Colorado College
7 Nebraska-Omaha vs 12 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Western Michigan
5 Denver vs 10 Notre Dame

Can we do anything to improve attendance? One that stands out to me is moving Dartmouth to Manchester and flipping them with Colorado College.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 Merrimack vs 9 Miami

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
4 Michigan vs 15 Colorado College
6 Union vs 11 Minnesota-Duluth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
2 Boston College vs 13 Dartmouth
7 Nebraska-Omaha vs 12 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Western Michigan
5 Denver vs 10 Notre Dame

Bracket integrity looks strong. Attendance looks decent. There isn't anything else we can do to improve it.

That's what I'll go with for the week.

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.
Week 8: Back in the game, #12 overall seed in Northeast Regional in Manchester
Week 9: Moving on up, to the east side. #9 overall seed in the East Regional.
Week 10a: All the way up to the #8 overall seed vs Maine in the East Regional.
Week 10b: With the PWR tweak we drop a spot. Now playing BC in Green Bay.
Week 11: Keep winning, keep moving up. #7 overall seed vs Western Mich in Green Bay.
Week 12: #7 overall seed once again. This week vs Merrimack in Green Bay.
Week 13: #8 overall seed, taking on #9 Union in the Mid-West Regional in GB.
Week 14: #15 overall seed, in the Northeast Regional vs Boston College.
Week 15: Moved up a spot after sliding the past 3 weeks. #14 overall seed in GB.
Week 16: Dropped out of the tournament completely. #21 in the PWR.
Week 17: Falling further from the tourney. #23 in the PWR. Need 2 wins this week.

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