Monday, December 20, 2010

Monday Morning Bracketology Week 7: 12/20/10

It's time once again for our weekly installment of Bracketology. This week finds the Wisconsin Badgers sitting at home once again come tournament time for the sixth week in a row. Similar to last week, we're hovering around the bubble. There weren't many games this week and we had a bye, so we end up #17 in the PWR in back to back weeks. Remember, we'd like to get to at least #13 or #14 to lock in an at large bid.

The WCHA lost an at large bid this week with Alaska leap frogging Colorado College. That means that the WCHA is projected to have 4 teams (North Dakota, Denver, Nebraska-Omaha, and Minnesota-Duluth) in the tournament with Colorado College, Wisconsin and Minnesota within striking distance.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. North Dakota
4. New Hampshire
5. Boston College
6. Denver
7. Nebraska-Omaha
8. Notre Dame
9. RPI
10. Miami
11. Michigan
12. Boston University
13. Maine
14. Union
15. Alaska
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (Robert Morris)

Bubble Teams (in order): Colorado College, Wisconsin, Merrimack, Western Michigan, Minnesota

Step 2: Assign the seeds


No. 1 seeds: Yale, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, New Hampshire
No. 2 seeds: Boston College, Denver, Nebraska-Omaha, Notre Dame
No. 3 seeds: RPI, Miami, Michigan, Boston University
No. 4 seeds: Maine, Union, Alaska, Robert Morris

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #1 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals
Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (Host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 4 UNH (Host) is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Notre Dame is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional
No. 7 UNO is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 New Hampshire's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 RPI is placed No. 8 Notre Dame's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Miami is placed in No. 7 UNO's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 11 Michigan is placed in No. 6 Denver's Regional, the West Regional
No. 12 BU is placed in No. 5 Boston College's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Maine is placed in No. 4 UNH's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Union is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Alaska is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 16 Robert Morris is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Notre Dame vs 9 RPI

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 15 Alaska
7 Nebraska-Omaha vs 10 Miami

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 New Hampshire vs 13 Maine
5 Boston College vs 12 Boston University

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Union
6 Denver vs 11 Michigan

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. Last week we had a ridiculous four. This week we have two and they are both in the Northeast Regional in Manchester.

Keep in mind teams can only be moved within their own band. Therefore, we're going to flip #13 Maine with #14 Union, and we're also going to flip #12 Boston University with #11 Michigan.

Our new tournament:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Notre Dame vs 9 RPI

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 15 Alaska
7 Nebraska-Omaha vs 10 Miami

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 New Hampshire vs 14 Union
5 Boston College vs 11 Michigan

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 13 Maine
6 Denver vs 12 Boston University

Bracket integrity looks strong.

There are no swaps that jump out at me to improve attendance without creating an intra-conference match up or ruining bracket integrity. Attendance looks strong in most of the regionals which should make the NCAA happy.

So that's what we'll go with for this week.

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.

chuckschwartz@live.com
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