Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Late Tuesday (?) Bracketology Week 6: 12/14/10

It's time once again for our weekly installment of Bracketology. This week finds the Wisconsin Badgers sitting at home once again come tournament time for the fifth week in a row. Similar to last week, we're hovering around the bubble. With our sweep against Bemidji State, we moved up two spots from #19 to #17 in the PWR. Remember, we'd like to get to at least #13 or #14 to lock in an at large bid.

The WCHA picked up an at large bid in this weeks projections with Colorado College jumping up to #15 in the PWR. That means that the WCHA is projected to have 5 teams (North Dakota, Denver, Nebraska-Omaha, Minnesota-Duluth, and Colorado College) in the tournament with Wisconsin and Minnesota within striking distance.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. New Hampshire
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. Denver
7. Nebraska-Omaha
8. Union
9. RPI
10. Notre Dame
11. Miami
12. Michigan
13. Boston University
14. Maine
15. Colorado College
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (Robert Morris)

Bubble Teams (in order): Alaska, Wisconsin, Merrimack, Dartmouth, Minnesota

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, Minnesota-Duluth, New Hampshire, Boston College
No. 2 seeds: North Dakota, Denver, Nebraska-Omaha, Union
No. 3 seeds: RPI, Notre Dame, Miami, Michigan
No. 4 seeds: Boston University, Maine, Colorado College, Robert Morris

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #1 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals
Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (Host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 3 UNH (Host) is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester
No. 4 Boston College is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Union is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional
No. 7 UNO is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 6 Denver is placed in No. 3 New Hampshire's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 5 North Dakota is placed in No. 4 Boston College's Regional, the West Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 RPI is placed No. 8 Union's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Notre Dame is placed in No. 7 UNO's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 11 Miami is placed in No. 6 Denver's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 12 Michigan is placed in No. 5 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Boston University is placed in No. 4 Boston College's Regional, the West Regional
No. 14 Maine is placed in No. 3 UNH's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 15 Colorado College is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 16 Robert Morris is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Union vs 9 RPI

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 15 Colorado College
7 Nebraska-Omaha vs 10 Notre Dame

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
3 New Hampshire vs 14 Maine
6 Denver vs 11 Miami

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
4 Boston College vs 13 Boston University
5 North Dakota vs 12 Michigan

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. Unlike last week, where we had none, this week we have four. Union vs RPI, Duluth vs Colorado College, New Hampshire vs Maine, and BC vs BU.

Keep in mind teams can only be moved within thier own band. Therefore, we're going to flip #16 Robert Morris and #14 Maine, and #15 Colorado College and #13 Boston University. We also will flip #9 RPI with #10 Notre Dame.

Our new tournament:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 14 Maine
8 Union vs 10 Notre Dame

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 13 Boston University
7 Nebraska-Omaha vs 9 RPI

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
3 New Hampshire vs 16 Robert Morris
6 Denver vs 11 Miami

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
4 Boston College vs 15 Colorado College
5 North Dakota vs 12 Michigan

Bracket integrity looks strong.

There are no swaps that jump out at me to improve attendance without creating an intra-conference match up or ruining bracket integrity.

So that's what we'll go with for this week, I'm happy with it.

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR

chuckschwartz@live.com
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