Another WCHA SNAFU

Wisconsin Badgers men's hockey: An embarrassing moment

By ANDY BAGGOT
3/19/2009

ST. PAUL, Minn. -- What caused the biggest buzz during the first day of the WCHA Final Five?

Hint: It wasn't Minnesota-Duluth staging a mild 2-1 upset of Minnesota in the play-in game Thursday night at the Xcel Center.

It was the highlight video shown during the annual awards banquet Thursday afternoon.

If the piece was supposed cast the WCHA in a good light, it failed miserably and prompted feelings of embarrassment from a variety of schools.

The video included multiple clips of players checking from behind, mugging one another, throwing one another to the ice and mixing it up.

There was a snippet of a player, apparently Minnesota State-Mankato's Channing Boe, being taken from the ice on a stretcher after he broke his ankle in a melee against Minnesota.

Those in the Wisconsin entourage were upset that much of their exposure in the piece had to do with goals allowed by goaltender Shane Connelly.

In fact, instead of celebrating the league and tying the whole season together, the final segment focused on the second UW-Denver series in which the Badgers allowed a late goal and were beaten in overtime.

After the banquet, UW coach Mike Eaves was asked for his reaction to the video.

"I'm surprised,'' is all he would say.

Coaches and representatives from multiple schools expressed dismay at the video.

"Embarrassing,'' said one.

"A total joke,'' said another.

Murray makes Final Five all tourney team

Lost in the midst of all the Badger Women's news (huge congrats to them!) and a disappointing Badger Men's ending to the season, Jordy Murray was named saturday night to the Final Five all tourney team. His two goals saturday afternoon were a lot of offense in a tourney that didn't feature much from teams other than Duluth.

Alex Stalock was named MVP, and well deserved (never thought I'd type that).

More on the Final Five tomorrow, it was my first one and I think it will become a regular event for me in the future.

All-American / All-FF Badgers

This past week, two Badgers were named 1st-team All-Americans, and five Badgers made the FF All-Tourney Team.

ALL-AMERICAN BADGERS
Senior goaltender Jessie Vetter and sophomore forward Hilary Knight were named 1st-Team All-Americans.

uwbadgers: Vetter, Knight earn All-American honors
wcha: Three WCHA players named all-Americans
Storlie (WSJ/TCT): Vetter, Knight named All-American

Jessie Vetter
Playing an NCAA-leading 2341:52, Vetter led the nation this year with a .942 SV%, and her 1.26 GAA put her 2nd in the nation. This season she set the NCAA record for shutouts in a single season (14), and she also set the record for career shutouts (39) and career victories (91).

In the Badger record books, she's also 2nd in career games played by a goaltender (115), 1st in single-season GAA (0.78 in 2005-06, 13 GP), 2nd in career saves (2175), and 1st in single-season saves (801, 2008-09, 40 GP). I don't know what her career SV% is, but given her percentages each year (.962, .953, .824, .942), I gotta believe that she now holds the record for career SV% as well.

And, of course, she won the Patty Kazmaier Award this year. You can read about that on uwbadgers (here and here), the WSJ, TCT, and usahockey. You can check out some pictures from the award ceremony and watch the Big Ten Network video feature.

Hilary Knight
Knight led the nation this season in points (83), goals (45) and PP goals (16). She also led the Badgers this season in points per game (2.13) and PP points (35), and she had a +/- of +48. Her 45 goals and 83 points this season are new Badger single-season records.

Oh, and just in case you didn't know, Hilary Knight's the Bomb.

Rounding out the All-American teams
Other 1st-Team All-Americans were Kacey Bellamy (D, Sr, New Hampshire), Jocelyn Laroque (D, Jr, UMD), Meghan Agosta (F, Jr, Mercyhurst), and Sarah Vaillancourt (F, Sr, Harvard).

The 2nd-Team All-Americans were Molly Schaus (G, Jr, BC), Melanie Gagnon (D, Sr, Minnesota), Sasha Sherry (D, So, Princeton), Rebecca Johnston (F, So, Cornell), Monique Lamoreux (F, Fr, Minnesota), Kelli Stack (F, Jr, BC).

Being who I am, I would've liked to see Badger forwards Erika Lawler and Meghan Duggan on the 2nd-Team, but it's a tough group of forwards -- all of the 1st- and 2nd-team forwards were top-1o Patty Kaz finalists. (Yes, so was Lawler, but there's only 6 spots here.)


FROZEN FOUR ALL-TOURNEY BADGERS
The following Badgers made the FF All-Tourney team:
G Jessie Vetter
F Hilary Knight
F Erika Lawler
D Alycia Matthews
D Malee Windmaier

Vetter was also named Most Outstanding Player of the tourney. She's won this award twice now, and she's the only player to win a national title, the Patty Kaz, and the FF MOP all in the same year.

Mercyhurst's Meghan Agosta was the other player to make the All-tourney team.

Linking up your 2009 National Champions! (updated)

Photo by Melissa Wade (uscho).

As you know, the Badgers defeated Mercyhurst 5-0 yesterday to win the 2009 National Title. Congratulations, Badgers!

There will be a welcome home celebration today at 6pm at the Nicholas Johnson Pavilion, and the celebration will be webcast on uwbadgers.com as well.

I thought I'd link things up for you quickly this morning before I head off to work. If I miss any links (and I'm sure that I will, as I don't have a lot of time to look), I'll add them later tonight. (If you see anything that I missed, please email me at sixtymin@gmail.com!)



Box: uwbadgers, collegehockeystats, uscho

Photo Gallery: Melissa Wade (uscho), Larry Radloff (TCT), Milwaukee JS

Game Stories:
uwbadgers: National Champs Again!
wcha: Wisconsin wins NCAA title again
Sullivan (uscho): Badgers back on top
Urton (uscho): Championship notebook
Storlie (TCT/WSJ): UW routs Mercyhurst for title
Storlie (Daily Cardinal): CHAMPS!
Golen (Badger Herald): NATIONAL CHAMPS!
BN: How sweet it is!!!
Lee (BN): No Mercy (premium content)
Flynn (Milwaukee JS): A successful liftoff
Matson (Boston Globe): Badgers, Vetter are so much better
Vieira (Boston Herald): Badgers' dynasty intact
AP: Vetter's shutout hands Badgers title
Stacey (Salem News): An overflow of love and support for Danvers' favorite hockey daughter
Williams (Salem News): Danvers' Duggan reaches NCAA pinnacle with Wisconsin
Stavely (Fitchburg Sentinel and Enterprise): Lawler wraps up college career
Sullivan (Hockey Journal): A Knight's tale
Baggot (WSJ): These Badgers a very special story
uwbadgers: Postgame quotes

TW Minor advances to Nationals!

I've been a bit negligent in my coverage of Team Wisconsin lately, but it's time to rectify that.

This weekend, #14 TW Minor won the U16 Central District Championship by virtue of a 3-2 victory over #2 Team Illinois on Friday and a 5-2 victory over #36 Russell Stover on Sunday. I don't have box scores, but I think I'll send tdd an email and see if he can fill us in, so check back here later for an updated post.

The previous weekend, TW Minor won the WAHA championship to advance to the Central District championship. They defeated the Milwaukee Junior Admirals 4-3 and the Madison Capitols 9-4 before defeating the Caps again 6-3 in the championship game. Again, I don't have box scores but will see what I can find out.

I was actually at the WAHA championship game, but I'm an unreliable witness, and I can't actually tell you who scored. But I can tell you we saw some pretty good hockey and had a lot of fun -- it was definitley worth hanging around Madison for an extra day to see the game.

As far as potential UW recruits go, keep an eye on defenseman Jake McCabe and forward Max McCormick. Chuck has also previously mentioned defenseman Joey Fiala and forwards Ryan Dau, Todd Koritzinski, and Tanner Tryggestad. And I wouldn't be who I am if I didn't remind you all that TW Minor is coached by Badger Gary Shuchuk. Luv ya, Shuey!

Next up for TW: The USA Hockey Tier I National Championships, April 1-5 in Chesterfield, MO. Looks like the usahockey site will include online scoring.

Good luck, Team Wisconsin! Go T-dub!

Women - 2009 National Champions

(Image from the landing page at UWBadgers.com)

For the third time in the last four years, the University of Wisconsin Women's Hockey Team are national champions, thanks to a 5-0 win over Mercyhurst today in Boston.

More on this later. Congrats, Badgers!

Now I'll have to update the years on the blog's banner...

It's Sunday, but I'm Still in Love

The Badger Women play for the National Title today at 11 AM CST

I don't have a lot of time to link things up, but I'll do my best given my time constraints!

TV: CSB College Sports
Video Webcast: NCAA.com
Radio: 92.1 FM (Madison) -- Eric Levine -- also available online
Audio Webcast: USCHO -- Brian Schulz w/ Laura Halldorson (Princeton '85) and A.J. Mleczko (Harvard '99) -- Call 877-913-9739 for technical assistance on game day.

Jacqueline Boscacci was kind enough to include a bunch of links in here Badger Insider email, and I'll list them here:

Boston Globe: Cold shoulder for home teams
Boston Herald: Erika Lawler gives assist to Wisconsin’s title bid
Fitchburg Sentinel and Enterprise: Lawler comes home for a title run
Worcester Telegram and Gazette: Lawler ending with a home run
Wisconsin State Journal: UW’s seniors seek another title to cap amazing run (blog)
Wisconsin State Journal: Knight’s extra effort pays off
Wisconsin State Journal: Good Knight, Hilary(blog)


And WHKY Blogger found this article:
Frozen in Time: Danvers' Duggan relishes chance to play for national title in Boston (The Salem News)

A brief scan of the WSJ/CT and BN today also brings us these:
Storlie (TCT): UW powers into fourth straight NCAA title game
Storlie (WSJ): Start of another class act?
Storlie (TCT): Vetter wins Patty Kazmaier Award
Storlie (WSJ): Vetter claims Kazmaier Award ahead of national championship game
Storlie (TCT): A pair of All-American performances
Radloff (TCT): Photo Gallery -- Wisconsin Badgers women's hockey vs. Minnesota Duluth
Eastwood (BN): On the doorstep
Eastwood (BN): Looking for the puncuation mark (premium content)
BN staff: Vetter wins Patty Kazmaier Award

Oh, and I almost forgot, Jacqueline Boscacci also has a travel blog for the tourney. And BTD had links to team game previews and recaps, and those are always nice to have.

Thanks to Jacqueline Boscacci, WHKY Blogger/BTD, and Brian Schulz for making this post really easy for me this morning.

Go BADGERS!

Jessie Vetter wins the Patty Kaz!

I don't have time to post much now, but I'd be remiss if I didn't congratulate Jessie Vetter on winning this year's Patty Kaz. Congratulations, Jessie!

(I'll try to post more later this week when/if I have more time.)

0.0002

That's what it comes down to, kids.

0.0002 in the RPI.

The Badgers finish tied for 15th with OSU in the PWR, but OSU's RPI is 0.0002 higher than the Badgers. If the Badgers had beaten OSU in the RPI, that comparison would've flipped, and they would've had the 15th spot all to themselves. And since the AHA qualifier actually finished in the top 16, the CHA qualifier (Bemidji) is the only team "stealing" a spot in the top 16. So 15th would've gotten us into the tourney.

I'm a Sad Badger.

Jamie McBain, WCHA PLAYER OF THE YEAR!

Jamie McBain, WCHA Player of The Year. That certainly has a nice ring to it now doesn't it? Today the WCHA announced it's post season awards and your favorite defenseman from Fairbult, MN has been named the leagues top player.

Obviously, McBain was also named as a first team all conference defenseman. McBain had more voting points than any defenseman in the conference. Chay Genoway was a close second, and no one was even close behind those two. (Voting for annual post-season awards in the WCHA is done by conference-member coaches, players, sports information directors and media)

Not only is McBain leading the Badgers in points this season, he is trying to become only the fifth Badger defenseman in school history to finish the season as the teams top point getter. McBain led all defenseman in WCHA scoring with 28 points in 28 league games this season.

Wisconsin freshman defenseman Jake Gardiner was also honored by the WCHA. He was named to the All-WCHA rookie team. The 6'2, 181 lb defenseman from Minnetonka, MN has played a big role in the Badgers success this season. His 21 points are good enough for 9th on the team and tied for second among Badger defensemen.

Jamie, Jake and the Badgers are fighting for their playoff lives starting tomorrow in St. Paul, Minnesota at the WCHA Final Five vs Denver at 2:07 CST. The game will be broadcast live by FSN.

Committed/Potential Recruits in Fondy

Fond du Lac, WI is hosting the 2009 USA Hockey Central District Championships this weekend. The Central Districts are the second stage in the process of winning a National Title at the AAA level. The first stage is the local state championships, (last weekend Wisconsin held theirs at Cap Ice in Madison), and the next step is Nationals which are being held this season in Chesterfield, Mo. for the U16's, and Pittsburgh, PA. for the U 18's.

Last weekend Team Wisconsin took care of business in both the U-16 and U-18 levels. Both teams feature players that will call the Kohl Center home some day (I'll get to them in a minute). At the U-16 level, there are only 2 other teams that Wisconsin needs to battle. First of all, they get right down to business Friday morning and play the state champion from Illinois, Team Illinois. Team Illinois U-16's are stacked and have a great coaching staff. The other team is the Jr. Mavericks out of Omaha. At the U-18 level, Team Wisconsin will be playing against the Chicago Mission who are representing Illinois, the Jr. Mavericks who are again representing tri-states, and Russell Stover from Missouri.

Here are some players to watch this weekend for those of you interested in going over to Fondy for the tounament.

U-16 Tournament players to watch:

Defense: Joey Fiala (Verona), Jake McCabe (EC Memorial)
Forwards: Todd Koritzinski (Middleton), Tanner Tryggestad (Amery), Ryan Dau (Hudson).

Defense: Jake Dutter (Wisconsin born), Chris Joyaux (Committed to Ohio State)
Forwards: Trevor Morbeck (Jackson, WI), Michael Vilardo (Committed to Ohio State).
Goalie: Garrett Sparks (Invited to NTDP tryout).



U-18 Tournament players to watch:

Defense: Nolan Kirley (Hayward), Brian Kemp (Fondy).
Forward: Cody Strang (Madison Edgewood, committed to UW), Matt Paape (Appleton, committed to UW), Wes Wauters (Ashwaubenon).
Goalie: Andrew Martin (Stoughton)


Defense: Robbie Russo (Committed to Notre Dame)
Forward: T.J. Tynan (Committed to Notre Dame)



Here is the schedule for the weekend. If you can't get to the Final Five, go watch some future Badgers and some GREAT hockey in Fond du Lac this weekend.

Tourneys start today, who do we cheer for?

Ok, so there is only one game tonight, but today does officially mark the start of March Madness. (Yeah...I know Bemidji already won the CHA, but lets be honest, who cares?) With the start of the hockey tournaments, filling out college basketball brackets, spending way too much of my day on College Hockey News' You Are The Committee, and preparing for a fantasy baseball draft, my head is spinning with information.

Obviously this is a Badger hockey blog so we'll focus on that for this morning. So who do we want to win games this weekend? Blockski has already had the post of the year on this blog below this one with the mathematical chances of us making the tournament. Patman from USCHO has us at a 25.03% of getting an at large bid after the dust settles this weekend.

So far there are 3 scenarios that get us into the tournament as an at large. There are some common trends within these scenarios and these are the teams that we need to cheer for or against. Keep in mind that these aren't the be all and end all of anything. More than likely these things will help us in getting an at large. Without further ado:

Hockey East: We need Boston University to beat Boston College Friday night. Also, either Boston University or Northeastern needs to win the Hockey East title.

Edit: Actually, BU doesn't need to beat BC. As long as U-Mass Lowell doesn't win the tourney, we should be fine.

ECAC: The only thing that absolutely needs to happen in every scenario so far is that we need St. Lawrence to go 0-2 in Albany, NY this weekend. Yale winning the ECAC and either Princeton or Cornell winning the third place game can help in some scenarios.

Atlantic Hockey: Like I said these arent the end all be all, but it helps if Air Force wins this tournament. We can still get an at large but that is the easiest thing to happen. Also, cheer for Mercyhurst to beat RIT Friday night in Rochester, NY. That increases the scenarios that we can get in with.

CCHA: Cheer for Michigan to beat Alaska on Friday night. Also, cheer for Notre Dame to beat Northern Michigan. If Northern wins we an also get an at large but we have more possibilities if they lose Friday. On Saturday, we need Notre Dame and Northern to both win whether or not its the first place game or the third place game.

WCHA: As far as I can tell, it doesn't matter who the hell wins between UMD and Minnesota. As for Wisconsin, obviously we want them to win 2 games and we're dancing anyways and I wasted a lot of mine and everyone else's time on this thing. If they don't, we don't necessarily NEED to beat Denver to get an at large. Talking in terms of us not winning the automatic qualifier by winning the tournament, we need Denver to win the tournament if we lose to them on Friday, and we need North Dakota to win the tournament if we win on Friday. In the scenario we lose to Denver, we need to win the third place game to sneak into the dance.

I hope this helped out a little bit on who to cheer for over the weekend. I think it is a little bit easier to understand than listing the scenarios. For those of you who disagree with me, I'll list the 3 scenarios we've found that get us into the tournament. Technically it's more than 3 scenario's, because within the scenarios, there are many times where we say things like well as long as Air Force wins the tournament we're ok. So keep in mind that there is like 1 million combination's and it's not like we only have 3 out of those million opportunities to get an at large. Like blockski pointed out in the post below we are sitting at a 25.03% chance that the chips fall our way in the at large scenario.

I KNOW there are more scenarios that get us in, but here are 3 that we know that do for sure.

Scenario 1: Northern Michigan wins third place game

Hockey East-No matter what, Boston University has to win first game of Hockey East vs. Boston College, then either Boston University or Northeastern can win the Hockey East title.

ECAC-All that matters Is that St. Lawrence doesn’t win a game.

Atlantic-Air Force needs to win tournament.

CCHA-Higher seeds win except for Northern Michigan winning the third place game.

WCHA-we win against Denver, then lose to Nodak. Denver needs to win the third place game.

Scenario 2: Northern Michigan wins CCHA tournament

Everything as listed above, except Northern Michigan beats Notre Dame and beats Michigan in the final. Notre Dame has to win the third place game. Also, RIT can win Atlantic Hockey in this scenario.

Scenario 3: Wisconsin loses to Denver Friday afternoon

Either BU or Northeastern have to win HE. No matter what BU has to play in the title game but they can win it over Lowell and we're still in.

Yale has to win the ECAC, but either Princeton or Cornell can win the third place game.

Air Force or Mercyhurst can win the Atlantic Hockey title but whichever one wins it, needs to win the title against the other team.

Northern must win third place over alaska and Notre Dame must win the title over Michigan.

Denver has to win the title over North Dakota, We can win third place over Minnesota or Duluth.

Tournament Chances (With Math!)

For those of us that want an assessment of what UW's chances are of making the tournament, there's always the opportunity to plug in some scenarios into the YATC widget, as Chuck has already done. These give us hope, as we can see that it's possible for UW to get an at-large bid without winning the Final Five. USCHO's diligent Badger fans have also identidied a couple of other scenarios that get UW in.

Identfiying a scenario is one thing, but what about quantifying the chances of that scenario actually coming to fruition? Enter USCHO poster 'Patman.' Patman's a statistician, so there's no lack of love for the numbers. Patman took the Pairwise formula, the results of the past season, and a mathematical technique known as Poisson regression to determine the chances of each scenario coming to pass. If you follow politics, you may have seen blogger, closet math nerd, and baseball sabremetrician Nate Silver's website FiveThirtyEight.com. There, Silver applied the same methodology to election polling - taking the polls done and using a regression analysis to predict the future, based on chance, in a number of different scenarios. Silver would plug in the poll data, adjust as need be for accuracy, and have the computer run a regression analysis (where it basically ran a fake election 10,000 times). The number of times a certain scenario popped up, divided by 10,000, and that's the percent chance of it happening. Silver was remarkably accurate in his election predictions.

Patman applied the same basic method here, though instead of using polling data, he used the previous game data. He adjusted for home ice advantage and for overtime performance, and used the past results as a basis for predicting the future games. Each run created a scenario where all the remaining games were played, and the PWR is applied at the end to see what happens. He did this 10,000 times, and aggregated the results. Putting things in percentage terms:

                      CHAMPS ATLRGE  NCAA  SEED 1 SEED 2 SEED 3 SEED 4
                ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1           Air Force 0.4309 0.0000 0.4309 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.4308
2                Army 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3       American Intl 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
4             Bentley 0.1269 0.0000 0.1269 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1269
5            Canisius 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
6         Connecticut 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
7          Holy Cross 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
8          Mercyhurst 0.2407 0.0000 0.2407 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2407
9                 RIT 0.2015 0.0000 0.2015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2015
10       Sacred Heart 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
11             Alaska 0.1065 0.0000 0.1065 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1065
12      Bowling Green 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
13       Ferris State 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
14      Lake Superior 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
15              Miami 0.0000 0.8800 0.8800 0.0000 0.0000 0.3789 0.5011
16           Michigan 0.3716 0.6284 1.0000 0.9150 0.0850 0.0000 0.0000
17     Michigan State 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
18     Nebraska-Omaha 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
19  Northern Michigan 0.0887 0.0000 0.0887 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0887
20         Notre Dame 0.4332 0.5668 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
21         Ohio State 0.0000 0.0881 0.0881 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0881
22   Western Michigan 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
23 Alabama-Huntsville 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
24      Bemidji State 1.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
25            Niagara 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
26      Robert Morris 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
27              Brown 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
28           Clarkson 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
29            Colgate 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
30            Cornell 0.2414 0.5415 0.7829 0.0000 0.2041 0.5194 0.0594
31          Dartmouth 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
32            Harvard 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
33          Princeton 0.2393 0.5269 0.7662 0.0000 0.2195 0.4989 0.0478
34         Quinnipiac 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
35         Rensselaer 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
36       St. Lawrence 0.3158 0.3118 0.6276 0.0000 0.1623 0.2312 0.2341
37              Union 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
38               Yale 0.2035 0.7939 0.9974 0.0288 0.6020 0.3200 0.0466
39     Boston College 0.0999 0.0180 0.1179 0.0000 0.0003 0.0885 0.0291
40  Boston University 0.4862 0.5138 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
41              Maine 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
42      Massachusetts 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
43       Mass.-Lowell 0.1847 0.0000 0.1847 0.0000 0.0000 0.0215 0.1632
44          Merrimack 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
45      New Hampshire 0.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.1256 0.8744 0.0000
46       Northeastern 0.2292 0.7708 1.0000 0.1966 0.7936 0.0098 0.0000
47         Providence 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
48            Vermont 0.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.6785 0.3215 0.0000
49   Alaska-Anchorage 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
50   Colorado College 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
51             Denver 0.3139 0.6861 1.0000 0.7693 0.2307 0.0000 0.0000
52      Michigan Tech 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
53          Minnesota 0.0784 0.1912 0.2696 0.0000 0.0229 0.1354 0.1113
54   Minnesota-Duluth 0.1345 0.4782 0.6127 0.0000 0.0690 0.2893 0.2544
55    Minnesota State 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
56       North Dakota 0.2458 0.7542 1.0000 0.0903 0.8064 0.1033 0.0000
57    St. Cloud State 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
58          Wisconsin 0.2274 0.2503 0.4777 0.0000 0.0001 0.2078 0.2698

The first column is the percentage of scenarios in which a team wins their conference tournament. The second column is the chance that they get an at-large bid. The third is the combination of the first two - the total chance of making the tournament. The last four columns then break that down by potential seed.

This shows us a comple of things. Several teams are locks to make the tournament, either by winning their tournaments or by getting an at-large bid. Michigan, Bemidji State, Boston University, New Hampshire, Northeastern, Vermont, Denver, and North Dakota are all locks. Of those, only Bemidji has actually secured an Automatic Qualifier (AQ) by winning the CHA tournament.

Wisconsin, according to this model, has a 22.74% chance of winning the Final Five, and a 25.03% chance of receiving an at large bid if they don't - for a total 47.77% chance of making the NCAAs.

Obviously, this is future performance based on past results. It can't take into account things like Denver's injured forwards, or the potential for lazy play given that the two top seeds in the WCHA have tournament bids locked up, or Wisconsin's desperation to continue their season. Nevertheless, the overall numbers are quite high, especially for the at large bid.

The overall chances that each WCHA team has of winning the Final Five are as follows:

Denver: 31.39%
Minnesota: 7.84%
UMD: 13.45%
North Dakota: 24.58%
Wisconsin: 22.74%

Anyway, many thanks to Patman for putting these numbers together and adding some factual basis to fan speculation.

Bowling Green Not Dropping Hockey

Bowling Green and college hockey as a whole can breath a big sigh of relief now that the University has come out and said they will not be cutting the hockey program. Greg Christopher, the athletic director at BG, wrote an open letter to all Bowling Green fans stating that they will still be fielding all 18 varsity sports next season.

Many concerns had been raised over the possible idea that they may actually do the unthinkable, and be the first school to shut down a program that has won a D-1 hockey championship.

I know I speak for almost all college hockey fans in saying that I never want to see a program shut down, and especially not one with the storied tradition that Bowling Green has. We're in tough times right now but hopefully schools like Bowling Green can bounce back because they make college hockey better as a whole.

Gandalf's WCHA Awards

WCHA season awards should be announced this week, so why not throw out some predictions. I attempted to be as unbiased as I could. My viewing of some of these players was pretty limited this season, so I did take a lot of stats into consideration.

1st Team WCHA

F – Ryan Stoa, minnesota
F – Justin Fontaine, Duluth
F – Ryan Lasch, St. Cloud
D – Jamie McBain, Wisconsin
D – Chay Genoway, North Dakota
G – Marc Cheverie, Denver

2nd Team WCHA

F – Jordan Schroeder, minnesota
F – Blake Geoffrion, Wisconsin
F – Chad Rau, CC
D – Kurt Davis, Mankato
D – Patrick Wiercioch, Denver
G – Alex Stalock

3rd Team WCHA

F – Anthony Maiani, Denver
F – Kael Mouillerat, Mankato
F – Tommy Grant, UAA
D – Josh Meyers, Duluth
D – Garrett Raboin, St. Cloud
G – Brad Eidsness, North Dakota

The top two goalies are pretty close in stats, Cheverie and Denver competed for the MacNaughton, Stalock and Duluth had to win on the road last weekend, this was my tie-breaker. Blake Geoffrion leads the WCHA in PP goals, though he is lower in points overall, he deserves some recognition. UAA had a great season and Tommy Grant played tough against the Badgers, he deserves some recognition as well. Goon will probably comment that I didn’t include Duncan. North Dakota didn’t have a dominate forward this season, but they had a lot of good forwards (a lot like Denver). Plus I still think the Gnome should never have won the Hobey in 2007 since his linemates were the real talent on the ice. Good thing for Duncan, Travelocity has a big contract waiting for him.

WCHA All Rookie Team

F – Derek Stepan, Wisconsin
F – Jordan Schroeder, minnesota
F – Mike Connolly, Duluth
D – Patrick Wiercioch, Denver
D – Jake Gardiner, Wisconsin
G – Brad Eidsness, North Dakota

Brett Olson (Michigan Tech) and Joe Colborne (Denver) are just as deserving in the forward department. Stepan was critical to Wisconsin’s second half, and while maybe the team results on the ice weren’t always what Badger fans expected, Stepan’s play was outstanding and really has me looking forward to what he can do next season. I have more thoughts on him for later this week.

The Western College Hockey Blog has their own picks for WCHA awards. That post includes links to some of the voters who were kind enough to post their picks, this includes Todd Milewski.

I have to strongly disagree w/ Chris on his reasoning why Jake Gardiner should not be on the All Rookie Team. I have Gardiner on my team, but I could understand him being left out, just not for Chris’ reasoning. He states that Gardiner and midget blue line gopher Aaron Ness didn’t live up to expectations. I would certainly agree in Ness’ case, he was very highly touted (especially by Woog and the Rug I’m sure). Gardiner was certainly a high draft pick last June by the Anaheim Ducks, but that was based on potential. Gardiner has all the potential to be a NHL blue liner, but we should recall that two years ago Gardiner was still a forward.

Coming into the season, most Badger fans weren’t expecting too much from Gardiner, besides some sweet skating and offensive upside. Between the transition from high school to college, and the still recent position switch, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say fans were thinking we might have another Brendan Smith like freshman campaign on the ice. Instead, Gardiner has played more like Cody Goloubef did last season w/ more offensive upside and still a little rough around the edges on defense. He’s been on the top pairing w/ Jamie McBain the entire second half of the season, he must be doing something right.

My own view on freshman defensemen is that I just hope they aren’t a regular liability to the team on defense; if they mix in some offense, great. Gardiner has been anything but a liability; in fact he has been a huge asset to the team. If I was the Ducks GM, I would be beaming right now seeing how Gardiner has progressed. He still has room for improvement, and Coach Osiecki will continue that tutelage next season, but based on any realistic expectations coming into this season, Gardiner has been top notch setting the bar higher each week and then meeting it.

The last award I will give out is for worst WCHA official. It was a hard vote, but in the end it was a tie; all WCHA officials suck and each deserve equal recognition for doing a really shitty and inconsistent job every time they hit the ice for a WCHA game.

Women's Rink/Practice Rink Moving Forward

Great news, courtesy of 'GB Puck Fan' over on USCHO. Today's Business Journal of Milwaukee notes that UW is planning on moving forward with the proposed ice facility to be built adjacent to the Kohl Center, despite the tough economic times. UW is planning on financing the $25 million structure using 100% private donations.

The credit crisis has eliminated traditional methods of underwriting sports projects, including those at colleges, which often sell bonds to initially pay for construction. But in Madison, where Wisconsin’s women’s team entered last weekend’s NCAA tournament as the top overall seed and the men were seeded third in their conference tourney, athletic officials are confident they will cover building costs by passing the hat among Badgers hockey’s biggest supporters.

“We have great fans and a great hockey tradition here with eight national titles between the two programs,” said Sean Frazier, Wisconsin’s associate athletic director for events and facilities. “It’s going to be a challenge, but we have committed donors who want to see this facility happen. We are actively and aggressively going after those folks."

The article also hints at the specifics of the building:

The university expects to select an architect later this month to design a four-level building with bench seating for 2,400 spectators, concessions and rest rooms. The goal is to break ground in 2010 for a fall 2012 opening, Frazier said.

Given the general malaise the economy is in right now, this is great news for both men's and women's UW hockey. So, all you deep-pocketed donors - time to pony up!

Committed Recruits Update

Lot of recruits in action over the weekend, here are some notes.

Sean Little, a forward for the Green Bay Gamblers (USHL) had an assist Friday against the Tri-City Storm and was a +1. After not registering a point for his first 27 games of the season, he has now had 3 points in his last 5 games (1 goal, 2 assists). He was scratched for Saturdays game, lets hope its not a serious injury. Little isn't known for his scoring yet on this level but he has gotten his name on the score sheet in the penalty column quite a bit. He's not afraid to scrap it up and he seems like the consummate Mike Eaves type player.


Craig Smith had a goal Saturday night in a 4-3 Waterloo win over the Fargo Force. The 6', 190 pounder from Madison is currently fourth in the USHL in scoring and is only 2 points out of second place. Smith has played less games than the players in front of him so he is actually second place in points per game. With a strong finish he could potentially pass Chicago's Andrew Miller for first place in points per game. Smith's 37 assists this season are good enough for second in the USHL.


Derek Lee had a goal on Saturday night when his Victoria Grizzlies were defeated 3-1 by the Cowichan Valley Capitals in the BCHL Coastal Conference semi-finals. Thanks to D-playa for pointing out that Lee has been in and out of the lineup for Victoria and didn't play on Friday night. So far in the 4 playoff games that Lee has played for Victoria, he has 2 goals and an assist. During the regular season Lee had 59 points in 58 games for the Grizzlies. Victoria hosts Cowichan for game 7 on Tuesday night.


Mark Zengerle (Salmon Arm) and Justin Schultz (Westside) have been playing each other in the Interior Conference Semi-finals. Both players have been banged up so far in the series. Schultz was hurt in the final game of Westside's first round series against the team with the best name in sports, the Trail Smoke Eaters. “He‘s just pretty sore,” said Mark Howell (Head Coach). Zengerle left game 2 of the current series in the first period when he got elbowed in the head and got several stitches above his left eye. He has not returned to action. Salmon Arm has won the series and will take on Vernon starting Friday. I would assume Zengerle will be back for that. Schultz had an assist in the loss and final game of his storied Westside career. Even the Salmon Arm website had great things to say about his gritty performance, "The Warriors gave everything they had including impressive efforts from injured players like Justin Schultz."


Indiana Ice goaltender Brett Bennett had a very impressive weekend. On Friday night he stopped all 26 shots he faced to backstop the ice to a 1-0 shutout win against the first place Lincoln Stars. Saturday night he stopped 24 shots in a 4-2 win over Omaha. Indiana is fighting for positioning in the East division so every point is huge for the Ice. They are currently 2 points behind division leading Green Bay Gamblers. Green Bay hosts Indiana on Tuesday in what should be an epic USHL battle.


Junior Matt Paape (Appleton) and senior Cody Strang (Madison Edgewood) led Team Wisconsin Majors to a WAHA State Championship this weekend at Capitol Ice in Madison. Team Wisconsin swept the field (Two wins over Madison Capitols and 1 win over the Green Bay Jr. Gamlbers) 3-0. Next weekend they will play at Central Districts in Fond du Lac. They open up the tournament Friday playing a team representing Missouri. D-playa from Hockey In Wisconsin should be in attendance so check there for updates.

"So you're telling me there's a chance!"

Obviously if Wisconsin beats Denver and then wins the championship game on Saturday they get the automatic bid and gain entrance into the NCAA tournament. I've found two scenarios that also allow Wisconsin to gain entrance into the tournament if by some reason they don't win the final five (Which we all know they are going to do so this is just a waste of bandwith).

Scenario 1: Northern Michigan wins third place game

Hockey East-No matter what, Boston University has to win first game of Hockey East vs. Boston College, then either Boston University or Northeastern can win the Hockey East title.

ECAC-All that matters Is that St. Lawrence doesn’t win a game.

Atlantic-Air Force needs to win tournament.

CCHA-Higher seeds win except for Northern Michigan winning the third place game.

WCHA-we win against Denver, then lose to Nodak. Denver needs to win the third place game.

Scenario 2: Northern Michigan wins CCHA tournament

Everything as listed above, except Northern Michigan beats Notre Dame and beats Michigan in the final. Notre Dame has to win the third place game.

So there are two senarios that get us in. Can you find any others?



PS, props to Exile on Dayton Street for the Dumb and Dumber reference.

'You Are The Committee' is Live

CHN's pairwise prognosticator is live. Begin your permutations now, and let's see if there's a scenario that gets UW in without winning the Final Five.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

Coming on Sunday - You Are the Committee

Upon the conclusion of Sunday's remaining league playoff games, the remainder of the regular season will be nothing but single-elimination tournaments - vastly simplifying the possible permutations of PWR possibilities. CHN will have their "You Are the Committee" (YATC) feature up at the conclusion of the Sunday games, and UW fans can start plugging in all the scenarios to see if they can still get an at-large bid without winning the Final Five.

The short summary - UW sits out the outside, still. The remainder of the league series haven't given UW a lick of help, as their primary competitors have all won or moved up, so UW is treading water. We'll see what the Sunday games bring.