Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Updated Week 10 Bracketology

We already did our weekly Monday morning bracketology but with the update that the NCAA has tweaked the formula for at large bids I thought we better update the bracket to see how much it affected Wisconsin.

The Badgers dropped a spot in the PWR but in my opinion gained an advantage because with an easy switch we now have the Badgers in the Mid-West regional in Green Bay vs Boston College.

No bids were won or lost for the WCHA this week but Colorado College took a significant hit with after being swept by Alaska-Anchorage. CC dropped about 7 places in the PWR with the sweep. There are a few other WCHA teams currently lurking in the "Teams under consideration" area. Minnesota (21), Bemidji (22), CC (23), and Minnesota State (24) could all put themselves in tournament consideration with a few good weeks.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. North Dakota
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. Denver
5. Michigan
6. New Hampshire
7. Boston College
8. Notre Dame
9. Wisconsin
10. Merrimack
11. Western Michigan
12. Dartmouth
13. Union
14. Nebraska-Omaha
15. RPI
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (RIT)

Bubble Teams (in order): Miami, Maine, Boston University, Alaska, Princeton

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, North Dakota, Minnesota-Duluth, Denver
No. 2 seeds: Michigan, UNH, BC, Notre Dame
No. 3 seeds: Wisconsin, Merrimack, Western Michigan, Dartmouth
No. 4 seeds: Union, Nebraska-Omaha, RPI, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #3 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (Host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 North Dakota is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 4 Denver is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Nore Dame is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional
No. 7 Boston College is placed in No. 2 North Dakota's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 5 Michigan is placed in No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the West Regional
No. 6 UNH (Host) is placed in No. 4 Denver's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Wisconsin is placed No. 8 Notre Dame's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 Merrimack is placed in No. 7 Boston College's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 11 Western Michigan is placed in No. 6 UNH's Regional, The Northeast Regional
No. 12 Dartmouth is placed in No. 5 Michigan's Regional, the West Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Union is placed in No. 4 Denver's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 UNO is placed in No. 3 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the West Regional
No. 15 RPI is placed in No. 2 North Dakota's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 16 RIT is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8. Notre Dame vs 9 Wisconsin


Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 North Dakota vs 15 RPI
7 Boston College vs 10 Merrimack

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Denver vs 13 Union
6 New Hampshire vs 11 Western Michigan

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 Minnesota-Duluth vs 14 Nebraska-Omaha
5 Michigan vs 12 Dartmouth

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. This week we have two, Boston College vs Merrimack and Minnesota-Duluth vs Nebraska-Omaha.

The Nebraska-Omaha flip is the easy one since we only have one option. Since UNO has to be a 4 seed, and they can't play first round games against 1 seeds North Dakota, Denver, or Minnesota-Duluth they MUST be flipped with RIT to the East Regional. As for BC/Merrimack, an easy switch of Merrimack and Wisconsin eliminates an intra-conference match up and boosts attendance by putting the Badgers in Green Bay.


Our bracket as we have it set up now:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)

1 Yale vs 15 Nebraska-Omaha
8. Notre Dame vs 10 Merrimack

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 North Dakota vs 15 RPI
7 Boston College vs 9 Wisconsin

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Denver vs 13 Union
6 New Hampshire vs 11 Western Michigan

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 Minnesota-Duluth vs 16 RIT
5 Michigan vs 12 Dartmouth

Attendance actually improved with the PWR tweak because an easy switch puts Wisconsin in Green Bay

Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.
Week 8: Back in the game, #12 overall seed in Northeast Regional in Manchester
Week 9: Moving on up, to the east side. #9 overall seed in the East Regional.
Week 10: All the way up to the #8 overall seed vs Maine in the East Regional.
Week 10b: With the PWR tweak we drop a spot. Now playing BC in Green Bay.

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