Monday, January 17, 2011

Monday Morning Bracketology Week 10: 1/17/11

It's time once again for our weekly installment of Bracketology. This week finds the Badgers moving on up once again. For the third week in a row the Badgers are projected to be tournament bound. Last week Wisconsin checked in at #9, this week we're at #8 in the PWR following our road split at Minnesota-Duluth. Remember, we'd like to get to at least #13 or #14 to lock in an at large bid.

No bids were won or lost for the WCHA this week but Colorado College took a significant hit with after being swept by Alaska-Anchorage. CC dropped about 7 places in the PWR with the sweep. There are a few other WCHA teams currently lurking in the "Teams under consideration" area. Minnesota (21), Bemidji (22), CC (23), and Minnesota State (24) could all put themselves in tournament consideration with a few good weeks.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. North Dakota
3. Denver
4. Minnesota-Duluth
5. Boston College
6. Michigan
7. Notre Dame
8. Wisconsin
9. New Hampshire
10. Maine
11. Dartmouth
12. Union
13. Boston University
14. Merrimack
15. Nebraska-Omaha
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (RIT)

Bubble Teams (in order): Western Michigan, RPI, Miami, Alaska, Princeton

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, North Dakota, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth
No. 2 seeds: Boston College, Michigan, Notre Dame, Wisconsin
No. 3 seeds: New Hampshire, Maine, Dartmouth, Union
No. 4 seeds: BU, Merrimack, Nebraska-Omaha, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #3 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (Host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 North Dakota is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 3 Denver is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 Wisconsin is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional
No. 7 Notre Dame is placed in No. 2 North Dakota's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 Denver's Regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 UMD's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 UNH (Host) is placed No. 5 BC's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 10 Maine is placed in No. 8 Wisconsin's Regional, the East Regional
No. 11 Dartmouth is placed in No. 7 Notre Dame's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 12 Union is placed in No. 6 Michigan's Regional, the West Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 BU is placed in No. 4 Minnesota-Duluth's, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 Denver's Regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Nebraska-Omaha is placed in No. 2 North Dakota's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 16 RIT is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8. Wisconsin vs 10 Maine

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 North Dakota vs 15 Nebraska-Omaha
7 Notre Dame vs 11 Dartmouth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Minnesota-Duluth vs 13 Boston University
5 Boston College vs 9 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 Denver vs 14 Merrimack
6 Michigan vs 12 Union

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. This week we have two, Boston College vs New Hampshire and North Dakota vs Nebraska-Omaha. We're in a tricky situation here because we can only move teams between bands but New Hampshire must stay in Manchester since it's a host school.

The Nebraska-Omaha flip is the easy one since we only have one option. Since UNO has to be a 4 seed, and they can't play first round games against 1 seeds North Dakota, Denver, or Minnesota-Duluth they MUST be flipped with RIT to the East Regional. As for New Hampshire/BC, UNH MUST stay in Manchester so we'll flip Note Dame and BC. It hurts attendance taking BC out of the East but we didn't have a choice. Flipping BC and Wisconsin would cause another intra-conference matchup so this is the best route. It creates more bracket ingtegrity as well.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)

1 Yale vs 15 Nebraska-Omaha

8. Wisconsin vs 10 Maine

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 North Dakota vs 16 RIT

5 Boston College vs 11 Dartmouth

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Minnesota-Duluth vs 13 Boston University
7 Notre Dame vs 9 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 Denver vs 14 Merrimack
6 Michigan vs 12 Union

It's not our best week attendance wise but it's certainly not our worst. Realistically there is nothing we can do to make it better either. So that's what we'll go with.


Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.
Week 8: Back in the game, #12 overall seed in Northeast Regional in Manchester
Week 9: Moving on up, to the east side. #9 overall seed in the East Regional.

Week 10: All the way up to the #8 overall seeed vs Maine in the East Regional.

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