Monday, January 24, 2011

Super (bowl) Monday Morning Bracketology Week 11

I'm up early this morning so I figured I might as well pump out bracketology for you as you're waking up.

With a home sweep of Minnesota State, the Badgers improved two places in the PWR all the way up to #7 this week. You keep winning games, and you get rewarded. This week finds the Badgers playing Western Michigan in the Green Bay regional.

There were no bids won or lost by the WCHA this week. Colorado College is still sitting on the doorstep. They are going to need to reel off some W's down the stretch here if they want a shot at an at large bid. Just like last week, there are 5 WCHA teams currently projected to get at large bids and CC (19), Minnesota (21), St. Cloud (25), Minnesota State (29), and Bemidji State (30) on the outside looking in.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Yale
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. North Dakota
4. Denver
5. Boston College
6. Michigan
7. Wisconsin
8. RPI
9. Notre Dame
10. New Hampshire
11. Western Michigan
12. Nebraska-Omaha
13. Dartmouth
14. Merrimack
15. Union
16. Atlantic Hockey Champion (RIT)

Bubble Teams (in order): Miami, Maine, Boston University, Colorado College, Princeton

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Yale, Minnesota-Duluth, North Dakota, Denver
No. 2 seeds: Boston College, Michigan, Wisconsin, RPI
No. 3 seeds: Notre Dame, UNH, Western Michigan, UNO
No. 4 seeds: Dartmouth, Union, Merrimack, RIT

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

Right now we have two host schools in the tournament. New Hampshire is hosting the Northeast Regional in Manchester, and Yale is hosting the East Regional in Bridgeport. Therefore, UNH is placed as the #3 seed in Manchester and Yale is the #1 seed in Bridgeport.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Yale (Host) is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport
No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in the Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
No. 3 North Dakota is placed in the West Regional in St. Louis
No. 4 Denver is placed in the Northeast Regional in Manchester

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible Begin by filling in each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 RPI is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional
No. 7 Wisconsin is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 6 Michigan is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 5 Boston College is placed in No. 4 Denver's Regional, the Northeast Regional

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Notre Dame is placed No. 8 RPI's Regional, the East Regional
No. 10 UNH (host) is placed in No. 5 Boston College's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 11 Western Michigan is placed in No. 7 Wisconsin's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 12 UNO is placed in No. 6 Michigan's Regional, the West Regional

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Dartmouth is placed in No. 4 Denver's Regional, the Northeast Regional
No. 14 Merrimack is placed in No. 3 North Dakota's Regional, the West Regional
No. 15 Union is placed in No. 2 Minnesota-Duluth's Regional, the Mid-West Regional
No. 16 RIT is placed in No. 1 Yale's Regional, the East Regional

Our bracket as we have it set up:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8. RPI vs 9 Notre Dame

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 15 Union
7 Wisconsin vs 11 Western Michigan

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Denver vs 13 Dartmouth
5 Boston College vs 10 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Merrimack
6 Michigan vs 12 Nebraska-Omaha

Our first concern is to avoid intra-conference first round match ups. This week we have one, Boston College vs New Hampshire

We're not going to switch BC out with Wisconsin and hurt attendance in Green Bay so we have two options, the first is to flip Boston College and Michigan. That would be the best for bracket integrity. Another consideration would be to flip Boston College and RPI. That would keep Boston College a few hours from home and boost attendance at the Bridgeport Regional.

At first I wanted to flip BC and RPI and originally posted as such here. The NCAA does love $, but I think it's just going to affect bracket integrity too much so I'm going to change out Michigan and Boston College.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
1 Yale vs 16 RIT
8 RPI vs 9 Notre Dame

Mid-West Regional (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
2 Minnesota-Duluth vs 15 Union
7 Wisconsin vs 11 Western Michigan

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
4 Denver vs 13 Dartmouth
6 Michigan vs 10 New Hampshire

West Regional (St. Louis, Missouri)
3 North Dakota vs 14 Merrimack
5 Boston Collegevs 12 Nebraska-Omaha


Week by week Wisconsin tournament tracker:
Week 1: #12 overall seed vs Michigan in Mid-West Regional in Green Bay
Week 2: First team out of the tournament, #16 in the PWR
Week 3: Falling further away from the tournament, #24 in the PWR
Week 4: Stopped the bleeding, moved up to #18 in the PWR
Week 5: Still hovering in the bubble, dropped a spot to #19 in PWR
Week 6: Gaining some ground, moved up to #17 in the PWR
Week 7: Stalemate, still at #17 in the PWR on a bye week.
Week 8: Back in the game, #12 overall seed in Northeast Regional in Manchester
Week 9: Moving on up, to the east side. #9 overall seed in the East Regional.
Week 10a: All the way up to the #8 overall seed vs Maine in the East Regional.
Week 10b: With the PWR tweak we drop a spot. Now playing BC in Green Bay.
Week 11: Keep winning, keep moving up. #7 overall seed vs Western Mich in Green Bay.

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